Key Points
The scale of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, along with the volatility injected by subsequent updates and reversals in policy, have so far exceeded even the most bearish forecasts.
Danish shipping giant Maersk, British oil giant Shell and Germany’s Volkswagen are among the European stocks investors will be watching closely this earnings season.
Emily Field, head of European pharmaceuticals research at Barclays, told CNBC earlier this month that tariffs were the “No. 1 question on investors’ minds.”
Investors are entering the first-quarter earnings season of 2025 with significant uncertainty looming over them, primarily due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The scale of duties announced in April, coupled with the volatility caused by subsequent updates and policy reversals, has exceeded even the most pessimistic forecasts.
Negotiators from the European Union and the United Kingdom are in talks with U.S. officials to seek relief from their respective 25% and 10% blanket tariffs, while also grappling with broader tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles. Meanwhile, the rest of the world is closely watching whether the heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing will subside, averting a trade war between the two largest economies that would have far-reaching consequences.
Two major earnings reports have already been released in Europe, providing an indication of the tone to come. Luxury giant LVMH stated that its categories, such as beauty, wines, and spirits, were vulnerable to a pullback in spending by “aspirational clientele.” Dutch semiconductor firm ASML, which manufactures chipmaking machines critical to global tech, said tariffs were “creating a new uncertainty” around demand. However, neither company was able to quantify the scale of the impact.
Here are five other major European firms yet to report earnings that could face significant impacts from the tariff turmoil:
Maersk: Danish shipping giant Maersk, a bellwether for global trade, is poised to report first-quarter earnings on May 8. Analysts expect Maersk’s first-quarter earnings before interest, depreciation, taxes, and amortization (EBITDA) to come in at $2.3 billion, down from $3.6 billion in the final three months of 2024. Shell: Shell is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings on May 2. Analysts expect the British oil giant to report first-quarter adjusted earnings of $5.14 billion, down from $7.73 billion in the same period a year ago.
Volkswagen: Germany’s Volkswagen is one of many automotive firms expected to take a hit from tariffs, particularly those on Canada and Mexico. Analysts warn that tariffs are especially negative for German carmakers, which export thousands of vehicles a year to the U.S., while many cars produced in the country still require European-made parts.
Lufthansa: As geopolitical tensions mount, some have questioned whether travel demand will suffer or trends will change, and the results of German airline group Lufthansa, due April 29, could hold some clues.
Novo Nordisk: Drugmakers have little idea how their access to the critical U.S. market will be impacted in the coming months. The Trump administration has opened an investigation into how importing certain pharmaceuticals affects national security, widely seen as a prelude to tariffs on drugs.
